French Regulator's Algorithm Uncovers Sobering Reality
France’s national gambling authority, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has unveiled a new proprietary tool that paints a concerning picture of the country's online gambling market. The ANJ gambling algorithm, a central part of its 2024-26 strategic plan, suggests a significant portion of operator revenue is generated by at-risk players. This new data is a critical update for the wider European gambling regulation landscape.
Initial findings from the second half of 2025 are stark. The algorithm identified approximately 600,000 players (8.7% of the online gambling population) with a high probability of excessive gambling. Within this group, around 300,000 were classified as “manifestly excessive,” a segment the ANJ insists operators must prioritize identifying.
These flagged players collectively generated an estimated €1.2 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR), accounting for 60% of the total online GGR. The ANJ noted this share of problem gambling revenue has been steadily increasing since 2023, highlighting a critical industry challenge.
Operator Detection vs. Algorithm Findings
The ANJ developed the algorithm using 23 indicators from scientific literature, including financial patterns, use of moderation tools, and gambling frequency. While operator identification of excessive gamblers has improved, the figures remain far below the algorithm's estimates.
| Metric | Operator-Reported Data (2025) | ANJ Algorithm Estimate (H2 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Identified Excessive Gamblers | 89,000 | ~600,000 |
| Identified 'Manifestly Excessive' | Not Specified | ~300,000 |
Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin, president of the ANJ, called the tool “a decisive step for the regulator.” She emphasized the ANJ’s expectation that operators immediately begin identifying the 300,000 manifestly excessive players and enhance support initiatives.
Global Regulatory Landscape in Flux
France isn't the only nation overhauling its approach. Regulators worldwide are implementing new systems and strategies to manage licensed markets and combat illegal activity.
Ukraine Implements Centralized Monitoring with DSOM
In Ukraine, the regulator PlayCity has launched the pilot phase of its state-run Online Monitoring System, known as the PlayCity DSOM. This platform is designed to track all operator and player transactions in near-real time to improve regulatory oversight and tax compliance. Eleven licensed operators are currently part of the trial.
The system will handle up to 10,000 transactions per second, recording bets, payouts, and returns without collecting personal player data. The information will be accessible to the State Tax Service to accurately calculate GGR and associated taxes. This move follows the dissolution of PlayCity's predecessor, KRAIL, in April 2024.
UK Faces Levy Uncertainty Amid NHS Abolition
The UK is experiencing its own regulatory turbulence as the government proceeds with the NHS Modernisation Bill. The bill, if approved, will abolish NHS England, one of the three bodies designated to administer funds from the new UK statutory levy on gambling harms. This has created significant uncertainty for charities and organizations that provide treatment and support.
While the Office of Health Improvement and Disparity (OHID) and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) are moving forward with their commissioning plans, the role of the NHS in England remains unclear. Victoria Corbishley, CEO of GamCare, stated the organization will work with the government through the transition to ensure continuity of care.
Brazil Debates Debt Program's Impact on Black Market
In Brazil, André Gelfi of the IBJR has warned that the Desenrola Brasil debt relief program could inadvertently strengthen the black market. He argues that blocking indebted individuals from licensed gambling sites will simply push them toward illegal platforms, which already generate an estimated BRL40 billion. This could lead to a potential tax loss of R$10.8 billion.
“The topic of ‘gambling’ is a goldmine for political populism. It’s easy for a candidate to slam gambling to show concern for morality and public decency or for the domestic economy, without having to offer real solutions to the debt problem.” - André Gelfi, IBJR
Market Expansion and Black Market Crackdowns
As regulated markets evolve, operators are expanding into new territories while governments establish new units to fight unlicensed competition.
Stake Targets LatAm Growth with Mexico Launch
Stake is continuing its push into Latin America, launching operations in Mexico. This marks the company's fourth licensed market in the region, following Colombia, Peru, and Brazil. The Stake LatAm expansion is a key strategic priority, with the company adopting a localized approach for each unique market.
According to Diana Otalora, Stake’s LatAm General Manager, Mexico was a natural choice due to its large population, deep sports culture, and growing digital adoption. The launch was timed ahead of the World Cup, and the company plans to use sponsorships as a central part of its brand-building strategy in the country.
UK Taskforce Defines Remit to Combat Illegal Gambling
The UK's Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) has outlined the remit for its new illegal gambling taskforce. Chaired by Gambling Minister Baroness Twycross, the unit will focus on three objectives: preventing payments to and from illegal operators, disrupting offshore marketing, and improving cross-agency enforcement. While it currently has no direct enforcement powers, the DCMS has not ruled this out for the future.
European Market Insights and Corporate Performance
Across Europe, new data provides a clearer view of player behavior, while major operators report strong financial growth.
Belgian Study Shows Stable Risk Despite High Ad Exposure
A new Health Survey by Sciensano in Belgium found that risky gambling behavior has remained stable, with just 2.6% of players showing at-risk behavior. This is despite 52.2% of the population being exposed to Belgium gambling advertising weekly. The report highlights a “blind spot” in the country's strict ad ban, as the National Lottery is largely exempt and accounts for nine out of ten players' participation.
Codere Online Posts Record Q1 Driven by Spain and Mexico
Codere Online announced record-breaking first-quarter results, with net gaming revenue up 13% year-on-year to €64.4 million. The strong performance was driven by sustained momentum in its key markets of Spain (€25.5m) and Mexico (€34.m). Based on these Codere Online results, the company reiterated its full-year 2026 outlook of €235–245 million in NGR.
