CFTC Unveils Landmark Prediction Market Regulations
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken a significant step in regulating controversial derivative exchanges by releasing its first proposed rulemaking for prediction markets. This initial proposal, a 267-page document, introduces structured CFTC prediction market rules designed to evaluate contracts and determine if they involve prohibited activities such as gaming. Stakeholders now have a 45-day window to comment once the proposal is published in the Federal Register.
A key element of the proposal is a new, narrower definition of “gaming.” The CFTC defines it as an activity for recreation or entertainment governed by rules with outcomes dependent on luck, skill, or athletic ability. This move is a departure from its previous stance, where it equated gaming with gambling, an interpretation the commission now calls a “previous error.”
New Framework and the 'Special Rule'
The regulations center on the CEA's “Special Rule,” which allows the commission to disallow contracts involving terrorism, war, assassination, or gaming if they are contrary to the public interest. The CFTC has outlined a three-step inquiry it must follow to prohibit a contract, a process that seems to indicate the commission views the rule as an onerous requirement. This includes determining if an event contract involves an enumerated category and then conducting a public interest analysis.
“This is a remarkable attempt to redefine what constitutes sports betting. It makes a mockery of Congressional intent while going against a bipartisan coalition of 41 attorneys general.” - Bill Miller, President and CEO, American Gaming Association
Industry reaction has been sharply divided. The American Gaming Association (AGA) and the anti-prediction market group Gambling is Not Investing, headed by Mick Mulvaney, have strongly opposed the rules. Conversely, the Coalition of Prediction Markets praised the CFTC’s commitment to protecting consumers and empowering American markets.
UK Operators Face Dual Regulatory Pressures
Across the Atlantic, the UK gambling industry is facing increased scrutiny on two fronts: the legitimacy of operator trademarks and anti-money laundering (AML) compliance. These developments highlight the ongoing effort to strengthen gambling regulation updates and protect consumers.
Entain's Campaign Against Unlicensed Gambling Trademarks
FTSE250 operator Entain is escalating its campaign against black-market operators by urging the UK Intellectual Property Office (UKIPO) to deny trademarks to gambling companies that do not hold a UK Gambling Commission license. In a letter to the UKIPO, Entain’s Group General Counsel, Simon Zinger, argued that granting trademarks to unlicensed firms gives them “commercial legitimacy” for illegal operations. The company provided an annex of unlicensed operators, many registered in Curacao or Anjouan, that currently hold UK trademarks.
Entain has proposed changes to the Trade Marks Act 1994, suggesting the UKIPO could refuse registrations that are contrary to public policy. The UKIPO responded that its assessment relates to the “intrinsic properties of the mark itself,” not the applicant’s actions, but the Entain UKIPO dialogue continues as the operator remains adamant that a credible argument exists for refusal.
| Entain's Proposal | UKIPO's Stance |
|---|---|
| Require a valid UKGC license for gambling trademark registration. | Assessment focuses on the mark's properties, not the applicant's status. |
| Use the Trade Marks Act 1994 to reject marks contrary to public policy. | Current law doesn't involve assessing the applicant's actions or how a mark is used. |
Gambling Commission's 'Wake-Up Call' on AML
Simultaneously, the Gambling Commission has issued a stark UKGC AML warning, stating that operators' anti-money laundering standards are slipping. At the GAMLG Annual Conference, Director of Enforcement John Pierce criticized the industry's over-reliance on AI and algorithms for AML controls, noting that the evidence shows these systems “simply aren’t delivering.”
The Commission highlighted several recurring failures:
- Personal Management Licence (PML) holders lacking sufficient oversight of AML controls.
- Operators not taking a proper risk-based approach to internal risk assessments.
- Insufficient due diligence over third-party business relationships, including white-label deals.
- Inadequate record-keeping and over-reliance on financial thresholds for risk profiling.
Pierce called this a “wake up call” for PML holders and confirmed the Commission will publish a full AML risk assessment in July 2026. This follows massive penalties issued to operators like Entain (£17m) and William Hill (£19.2m) in recent years for AML and social responsibility failures.
European Market Dynamics: Norway and Sweden Updates
The regulatory and corporate landscape is also evolving in Scandinavia. Political debates over market structure in Norway and key leadership changes in Sweden signal potential shifts in the region.
Norway's Progress Party Pushes to End Monopoly
In Norway, the right-wing populist Progress Party (FrP) is doubling down on its campaign to dismantle the state-controlled gambling monopoly. Speaking at the Spillkonferansen, former MP Himanshu Gulati declared that establishing a licensing model must be the party's “most important cultural political issue.” He criticized the current Norway gambling monopoly held by Norsk Tipping and Norsk Rikstoto, arguing for a modern, regulated system.
While the dominant political parties still defend the monopoly, the FrP is gaining ground and finds some support from members of the conservative Høyre party. With Finland moving towards licensing, Norway is becoming more of an outlier in Western Europe.
ATG Appoints New CEO Amid Expansion Plans
Swedish horse racing and sports betting operator AB Trav och Galopp (ATG) has appointed a new leader to navigate its future. Anna Romboli ATG CEO is the new title, as she moves from her role at Svenska Spel to take the helm in December. Her appointment comes as ATG faces challenges in revenue growth and prepares for expansion into Finland's soon-to-be-regulated online market.
Romboli will be tasked with reinvigorating ATG's financial performance and broadening its appeal. The company is part of a joint venture, Hippos ATG, which is one of nearly 50 applicants for a Finnish online gambling license ahead of the market's planned launch in July 2027.
