GCI Report: Unregulated Market Hits $5.9 Trillion
The global market for unregulated online gambling has reached an unprecedented $5.9 trillion in 2025, according to a comprehensive analysis by Gaming Compliance International (GCI). This figure represents a 4% increase from the $5.7 trillion recorded in 2024 and continues a sharp upward trend from $5.1 trillion in 2023. The report underscores the massive scale of the challenge facing global regulators.
GCI's research indicates that unlicensed operators now command approximately 78% of the global online gaming GGR, with regulated operators making up the remaining 22%. The report controversially describes the sector as the “world’s third-largest economy,” trailing only the USA and China, and labels it the largest form of cybercrime worldwide.
The study focused exclusively on online activities, omitting retail operations, and defined unregulated gambling as unlicensed products actively targeting local consumers. GCI's methodology combined automated surveillance with human analysis, using proprietary metrics like “Value Per Visit” (VPV) to quantify spending habits between regulated and unregulated platforms.
“At $5.9 trillion in wagering value, unregulated online gambling is one of the largest economic systems in the world, operating largely outside regulatory oversight. Regulators are not facing a marginal challenge, but a dominant one – the majority of activity is occurring beyond the regulated perimeter.” - Matt Holt, CEO, GCI
Key Findings from the GCI Global Report
The report introduced the concept of a “White Noise Marketplace,” where consumers find it difficult to distinguish between regulated, unregulated, and unacknowledged gambling products. This confusion is a significant factor in the black market's growth. The analysis covered a wide range of activities, including sports betting, casino games, poker, crypto gambling, and lotteries.
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Unregulated Market Value | $5.1 Trillion | $5.7 Trillion | $5.9 Trillion |
| Unregulated Share of GGR | - | - | 78% |
| Regulated Share of GGR | - | - | 22% |
Growth Drivers and Global Regulatory Reactions
GCI identified several factors expected to fuel further growth in 2026. These include the spill-over from loosely regulated sectors like prediction markets and the increasing complexity of crypto-linked gambling products.
Prediction Markets & Illegal Advertising
The regulatory status of prediction markets varies significantly worldwide. While the US regulates them under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Brazil recently declared them illegal, with its telecommunications agency blocking 28 platforms. In contrast, Gibraltar recently licensed its first prediction market operator, Predict Street.
Widespread advertising on illegal sports streaming services is another major concern. The report found that unregulated gambling ads appeared on over 80% of illegal sports streams in the US and UK during 2024 and 2025, with major events like the World Cup driving the surge.
In response, several countries are tightening advertising rules. Ukraine launched an online tool for reporting illegal ads, with fines reaching UAH5.19 million. Australia implemented a national ban on wagering ads during live sports on free-to-air TV between 6 am and 8.30 pm, while UK MPs have proposed a pre-9 pm watershed ban.
Brazil Blocks Indebted Citizens from Betting
In a direct move to protect vulnerable consumers, Brazil has begun enforcing a ban on online betting for beneficiaries of the New Desenrola Brasil debt renegotiation program. The measure, signed into law by President Lula, prohibits participants from placing any online bets for a full year. The block applies to both new registrants and existing users on all licensed platforms.
Operator Compliance and Technical Measures
The Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) has provided operators with guidance and technical tools for enforcement. An API within the Betting Management System (Sigap) allows operators to continuously verify if a user is part of the Desenrola Brasil program. If a match is found, the system returns a “Blocked” status.
Operators are subject to strict new requirements:
- They must prevent new registrations from program participants immediately.
- For existing customers, operators must check their status on their first login of the day.
- Upon detection, any open bets must be cancelled immediately, and the customer's account must be suspended within three days.
- The user must be informed of the reason for the block and given a chance to withdraw funds; otherwise, the operator must refund the balance within two days.
- All communication with the blocked user must be documented and stored for a minimum of five years.
The process is managed centrally, with banks sending beneficiary CPF numbers to Banco do Brasil, which then forwards the list to the SPA. Operators were required to reject new registrations from May 15 and complete a full scan of their existing customer databases by May 20.
